So North Korean leader Kim Jung Un is cranking up the crazy with talk about launching a nuclear attack against South Korea, Japan and the United States.
He really needs to shut the fuck up. This ain't 1951.
A quick history lesson. During WWII, Japan invaded and controlled both Korea and China.
That's right. China was so weak that it could be conquered and controlled by Japan.
After the defeat of Japan, the Allies divided Korea along the 38th parallel. The Communist Soviet Union got control over North Korea, America got control over South Korea.
In 1949, Mao Zedong led a revolution on the Chinese mainland and established the Communist People's Republic of China. It was in Mao's interests to support the fledgling communist state to his south as a buffer (read:killing field) between China and the United States.
This was when only the United States had deliverable nuclear weapons and the U.S.S.R. had only tested one. There were no spy satellites or intercontinental ballistic missiles. All warfare was conducted on the ground, by sea or by air. South Korea was the perfect buffer zone for China.
The Korean War started when North Korea invaded South Korea (with Chinese support) in an effort to consolidate Communist Chinese control over the entire Korean peninsula. Long story short, the Korean War wasn't really a war between North Korea and South Korea. It was a war between the United States and China which ended in a stalemate that has held for 60 years.
Fast forward to the 21st Century. China is no longer poor and weak. It is on the verge of becoming the dominant world power, surpassing the United States, Russia and all others. It no longer needs North Korea and North Korea is becoming an unstable liability on China's path to supremacy.
North Korea's new leader, Kim Jung Un, has responded to the recent, routine, joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea by issuing batshit crazy threats that it cannot possibly back up.
In response, the United States has been upping the game by sending stealth bombers and stealth fighters to participate in the exercises. [PRO TIP: If you want to intimidate an enemy, you should send weapons that your enemy can actually SEE! But I digress.] In return, China has been massing troops and arms on North Korea's northern border.
Now, this looks really, really bad. But I don't think it's as bad as it looks and things could actually get better really quick. Here's why.
In 1951, the interests of China and North Korea were in close alignment. They were both poor, weak, Communist states on the defensive. That is no longer the case.
North Korea is much, much weaker than it was in 1951 and China is on the verge of becoming the most powerful nation on the face of the Earth. China no longer needs North Korea. The United States is China's largest market for exported goods and a strategic financial partner. China holds the bulk of American debt. China has a deep interest in the continued financial prosperity of the United States. A replay of a protracted war on the Korean Peninsula is not in the best interest of China or the United States.
So here is how I think this will play out.
Kim Jung Un will go balls to the wall by launching a a first strike on either Japan, Seoul or our military bases on Guam. We will intercept his attack or, his attack will fail because his targeting technology sucks ass.
I'm confident that we know, within inches, the location of every weapons store, every artillery battery, every airstrip, every naval base, every bridge, every factory, every command and control center and every residence of every member of the North Korean leadership. Hell, we probably know more about North Korea than Kim Jung Un does.
When Kim Jung Un crosses the line, the United States and South Korea will launch a MASSIVE conventional strike and take out every single one of those targets in one fell swoop. It won't be days and days of "shock and awe". It will be one massive strike that flips the switch and removes North Korea's ability to wage war.
But here's the kicker. All of those Chinese forces massing on North Korea's border? I don't think they will join the battle against us. I think they will join the battle WITH us.
In fact, what if China launched it's attack on North Korea first? Imagine the confusion and panic within North Korea's political and military leadership? The U.S. and South Korea could take advantage of the confusion, attack from the south in a classic pincer offensive meeting Chinese forces in the middle.
China would get a HUGE boost in international credibility and collectively we would have eliminated a threat to what is otherwise a very prosperous region.
Once the Kim family dynasty is destroyed, North and South Korea can be reunified just like East and West Germany and both the United States and China will have one less mutual threat and one more lucrative trading partner. And most importantly, the people of North Korea can be properly fed and housed and be welcomed into the 21st century.
Problem solved, a win for the world.