Thursday, April 04, 2013

Krazy Korean Kim

So North Korean leader Kim Jung Un is cranking up the crazy with talk about launching a nuclear attack against South Korea, Japan and the United States.

He really needs to shut the fuck up. This ain't 1951.

A quick history lesson. During WWII, Japan invaded and controlled both Korea and China. 

That's right. China was so weak that it could be conquered and controlled by Japan.

After the defeat of Japan, the Allies divided Korea along the 38th parallel. The Communist Soviet Union got control over North Korea, America got control over South Korea.

In 1949, Mao Zedong led a revolution on the Chinese mainland and established the Communist People's Republic of China. It was in Mao's interests to support the fledgling communist state to his south as a buffer (read:killing field) between China and the United States.

This was when only the United States had deliverable nuclear weapons and the U.S.S.R. had only tested one. There were no spy satellites or intercontinental ballistic missiles. All warfare was conducted on the ground, by sea or by air. South Korea was the perfect buffer zone for China.

The Korean War started when North Korea invaded South Korea (with Chinese support) in an effort to consolidate Communist Chinese control over the entire Korean peninsula. Long story short, the Korean War wasn't really a war between North Korea and South Korea. It was a war between the United States and China which ended in a stalemate that has held for 60 years.

Fast forward to the 21st Century. China is no longer poor and weak. It is on the verge of becoming the dominant world power, surpassing the United States, Russia and all others. It no longer needs North Korea and North Korea is becoming an unstable liability on China's path to supremacy.

North Korea's new leader, Kim Jung Un, has responded to the recent, routine, joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea by issuing batshit crazy threats that it cannot possibly back up. 

In response, the United States has been upping the game by sending stealth bombers and stealth fighters to participate in the exercises. [PRO TIP: If you want to intimidate an enemy, you should send weapons that your enemy can actually SEE! But I digress.] In return, China has been massing troops and arms on North Korea's northern border.

Now, this looks really, really bad. But I don't think it's as bad as it looks and things could actually get better really quick. Here's why.

In 1951, the interests of China and North Korea were in close alignment. They were both poor, weak, Communist states on the defensive. That is no longer the case.

North Korea is much, much weaker than it was in 1951 and China is on the verge of becoming the most powerful nation on the face of the Earth. China no longer needs North Korea. The United States is China's largest market for exported goods and a strategic financial partner. China holds the bulk of American debt. China has a deep interest in the continued financial prosperity of the United States. A replay of a protracted war on the Korean Peninsula is not in the best interest of China or the United States.

So here is how I think this will play out.

Kim Jung Un will go balls to the wall by launching a a first strike on either Japan, Seoul or our military bases on Guam. We will intercept his attack or, his attack will fail because his targeting technology sucks ass.

I'm confident that we know, within inches, the location of every weapons store, every artillery battery, every airstrip, every naval base, every bridge, every factory, every command and control center and every residence of every member of the North Korean leadership. Hell, we probably know more about North Korea than Kim Jung Un does.

When Kim Jung Un crosses the line, the United States and South Korea will launch a MASSIVE conventional strike and take out every single one of those targets in one fell swoop. It won't be days and days of "shock and awe". It will be one massive strike that flips the switch and removes North Korea's ability to wage war.

But here's the kicker. All of those Chinese forces massing on North Korea's border? I don't think they will join the battle against us. I think they will join the battle WITH us.

In fact, what if China launched it's attack on North Korea first? Imagine the confusion and panic within North Korea's political and military leadership? The U.S. and South Korea could take advantage of the confusion, attack from the south in a classic pincer offensive meeting Chinese forces in the middle.

China would get a HUGE boost in international credibility and collectively we would have eliminated a threat to what is otherwise a very prosperous region.

Once the Kim family dynasty is destroyed, North and South Korea can be reunified just like East and West Germany and both the United States and China will have one less mutual threat and one more lucrative trading partner. And most importantly, the people of North Korea can be properly fed and housed and be welcomed into the 21st century.

 Problem solved, a win for the world.


Annette said...

like yout theory

I Travel for JOOLS said...

I hope you're right except for the part about N. Korea launching a first strike. But, crazy people do crazy things. I do worry a bit about a coordinated strike between N. Korea and Iran but supposedly Iran isn't capable yet.

Nonetheless, even a unilateral strike by N.Korea, even if rather small, will cause chaos in the world financial markets as well as public panic. Maybe a trip to Costco is in order.

One thing - China is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt, but actually it's #3, behind the friggin U.S. Federal Reserve which is hell bent on detroying the economy and good old #1, the Social Security Trust Fund. Nice, huh.

Xavier Onassis said...

Jools - I seriously doubt that Iran and North Korea are capable of coordinating anything.

As far as a North Korean first strike goes, I'll say this. I know that we have moved many, many assets in place to be able to counter a N. Korean missile strike. We have several different ways of taking out a missile in flight between launch and impact. I'm sure all are in play in the region.

However, those assets will need to make 3 critical assessments within seconds after the launch.

1. What is the likely payload?
2. Where will it land?
3. Are we 100% sure we can take it out?

If the answer to 1 is conventional explosive warhead, we might choose to let it go regardless of the answer to 2 and 3. This would give us and S. Korea and whoever else wanted to join us the low cost justification to take N. Korea out.

However, we should be able to tell if it is armed with one of N. Korea's primitive heavy nukes by comparing the known thrust of the rocket to the ballistic arc after launch. This would significantly change the calculus that follows.

If the answer to 2 is in the ocean, then we definitely leave it alone. They have fired warning shots over Japan before. It makes them feel good and does no real harm.

Question 3 is the real critical issue despite the answers to 1 or 2. Regardless of the payload or target, if we are absolutely, 100% certain that we can take it out in mid-flight then we should do it.

That would send a huge message to our allies and to N. Korea that we can and will protect our interests in the region and that N. Korea is not a serious threat.

But again, regardless of the payload or target, even if it's a dummy warhead deliberately targeted for the middle of the ocean, if we swing and miss...

Well, that would be a very serious and negative development indeed.

So I'm hoping that we have double, triple, quadruple, quintuple redundancy in the area so that we can be 100% certain that we can destroy the missile in flight.

Now, as to your last point, I admit I'm no economist. I can barely keep my bills paid.

But I'm not sure I understand how the Federal Government can owe The Federal Reserve money.

I get that Social Security represents a "debt" (it's really more of a legislated obligation that a debt since it is still solvent at this point but I get your point).

And I understand that you and The Pauls think that the Federal Reserve hates America and is part of some global cabal to do something terribly nefarious.

But I'm missing the part where The United States of America actually owes the Federal Reserve money. I'm not seeing the debt mechanism where that would be possible.

I'm sure you'll explain.

And may I say, so very nice to hear from you! Hope you are well.

I Travel for JOOLS said...

I like your analysis of what to do if...

And I'm hoping that China can "advise" the little menace that it's not in his best interests to act irrationally.

I'm not an economist either. I just watch CNBC a lot .. lol
Here's a Fact Check article on who owns the Federal Reserve.

As you can see, there is some dispute over the answer to that question but I go with the answer that it's owned by independent banks with "oversight" by Congress and the President. (although in reality there really is very little oversight).

I like this You Tube video done by MSNBC as a means of explanation.

Full disclosure: My son-in-law works for the Federal Reserve and has to endure my rants from time to

I Travel for JOOLS said...

Just got e-mail from my brother who is on the Defcon mailing list. Upgraded to Defcon yellow (3) today.

Xavier Onassis said...

They raised a missile, they lowered a missile. They're fucking with us and we're feeding their agenda by responding. We should STFU while using our satellite and drone tech to target every single offensive unit they have. We can take out 90% of their offensive capability in one massive conventional strike.

Morrison said...

So you are saying lets go for it because our great military is going to win one for the team.

Why are liberals always supportive of this stuff?

You have forgotten that the United Stated military has not actually "won" a war since World War Two.

And even then we had a lot of help.